The European Union elections have crystallised a tectonic shift within the continent’s political landscape. Far-right parties have now entrenched themselves within the political mainstream, signalling a profound transformation that could shape the future of the EU for years to come.
When European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stood in front of the microphones on Sunday night, objective observers rightfully wondered whether she was referring to an entirely different election. While she’s likely to stay in office, the message that socialists, liberals and her centre-right party should have received with the result is certainly not to continue the status quo.
Over the past decades, traditional parties have won enough votes to maintain a grip on power, but the issues that voters are concerned about – migration, the economy or security – have been ignored and often left to those who seek to provide simple answers to complex questions.
Since the last European Parliament elections in 2019, the political trajectory of several far-right parties has altered dramatically. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), a party which harbours neo-Nazis, has now established itself as a formidable force within the national and European political arena. In this election, it received 16 per cent of the vote – more than German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party.
The results reflect broader trends seen across Europe, where far-right parties have capitalised on widespread disenchantment with the traditional political establishment.
In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally has continued its upward momentum, winning 31.4 per cent of the vote on Sunday, more than double the share of French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance. There have been similar results in Austria and Italy. In Bulgaria, the Revival Party, on the extreme edge of the European right and considered pro-Putin, will enter the European Parliament for the first time.
Macron’s decision to call a snap election is a direct response to the growing strength of the far-right. If I had to guess, I’d say Macron will regret this decision dearly, as it could usher in a Le Pen presidency and thus a political paradigm shift in France.
Similarly, the German government, already grappling with internal divisions, finds itself under increased pressure following another dismal electoral performance. Calls for elections are getting louder each day.
This rightward trend within the EU is likely to intensify after the national elections in Austria and the state elections in Germany, which the AfD could very well win. The Netherlands, meanwhile, already received a reality check.
But how did we get here? How is it possible that so many people, including the young, are falling for anti-European promises? The answer remains as simple as it is concerning.
What these far-right movements have in common is the ability to harness public discontent by focusing on issues such as immigration, national sovereignty and protectionism. Their ability to articulate these concerns effectively resonates with a significant portion of the electorate that no longer trusts the traditional parties after decades of empty promises. And it has transformed far-right parties from political outsiders to key players.
Migration, in particular, remains a highly contentious issue. In 2023, the number of asylum applicants – mainly from Syria, Afghanistan and Turkey – on the continent was 1.1 million, up 20 per cent from the year before.
Germany accounted for 31.4 per cent of first-time asylum applicants in the EU, with 329,035 applicants registered in 2023, France came in third with 145,095, 13.8 per cent. Immigration and asylum matters were top priorities for German voters.
But the failure extends beyond immigration and asylum. Economic insecurity, cultural identity and scepticism about the EU’s central authority are areas where traditional parties have faltered. Instead of offering solutions, they have resorted to vague platitudes, allowing far-right narratives to dominate the discourse.
And while far-right parties are fragmented, their potential to influence EU policy shouldn’t be underestimated. If these parties manage to coalesce around key issues, they could alter the EU’s trajectory.
Far-right parties often prioritise economic growth and national sovereignty over environmental regulations, potentially stalling or reversing progress on climate initiatives. Their emphasis on protectionism and scepticism towards international agreements could undermine the EU’s role in global climate policy.
Support for Ukraine, too, could weaken under the influence of a more powerful far-right bloc. These parties advocate a more isolationist foreign policy and reduced involvement in international conflicts. This could lead to a softening of the EU’s stance towards Russia and a reduction in support for Ukraine, with significant geopolitical implications.
04:47
Could a far-right shift in the EU parliament change its relations with China?
Could a far-right shift in the EU parliament change its relations with China?
The issue of EU enlargement has now also gained a different dynamic. The list of countries that are keen to join the EU currently includes Turkey, Ukraine, Albania, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Georgia. It is to be expected that representatives of right-wing parties in the EU will fight with all their might against the admission of more members.
In an ideal world, it would be understood that Europe can only survive in these times if it stays united and deepens integration in the areas of defence, climate, energy, competitiveness and industrial policy, and pushes forward with enlargement.
However, decades of self-preservation governance in Europe, domestically as well as on the supranational level, have alienated voters to an extent that fringe ideas and forces have entered the mainstream. Von der Leyen, Scholz, Macron and others must demystify the far-right by tackling the issues at hand rather than debating them.
Thomas O. Falk is a journalist and political analyst who writes about German, British, and US politics
